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Market Commentary: December 2021

Global Market Themes: Mounting Omicron cases in Europe, United States (US) despite highly vaccinated population Developed Market (DM) equities stage a recovery and end the year with double-digit gains Chinese equities slump, Chinese and US regulators remain at odds Major Emerging Markets (EM) rally, but still end the year 2.5% lower SA Market Themes: Global peers recognise prematurity of bans, ease restrictions Economic data paints a rather gloomy picture South African equities tick higher, Financials lead the way Precious metals and Industrial metals post solid gains, lifting miners Local inflation hedges – listed property and Inflation-Linked bonds – post solid gains Rand shows modest improvement against major currency pairs

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China Market Commentary: December 2021

Here are this month’s highlights: For December, the MSCI China index was down 3.2% and the MSCI China A Onshore index was up 0.7%. Offshore listed companies in Hong Kong and US ADRs fell indiscriminately. By contrast, onshore China A shares delivered stronger returns on the back of many sectors doing well.

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Market Commentary: November 2021

Global Market Themes: Markets roiled by the emergence of new COVID-19 variant (Omicron) United States (US) equities lower, nonetheless outperforming Developed Market (DM) peers Emerging Markets (EM) bear the brunt of global risk aversion Chinese equities mainly lower, on “zero-tolerance” and regulatory uncertainty Oil prices slump, hit 20-month low, on Omicron fears SA Market Themes: Local election results deliver notable surprises in major metros South African scientists report new COVID-19 variant, Omicron, sparking reinstatement of travel bans South African equities seemingly shrug off global fears, close higher led by resources and industrials South African Reserve Bank (SARB) implements first interest rate hike Rand tumbles to fresh lows, closing at more than R16/USD

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China Market Commentary: November 2021

Here are this month’s highlights: The MSCI China and MSCI China A Onshore indices were up 3.2% and 2.2% respectively. Over the last three years, our multi-manager strategy has experienced both severe bull and bear markets, has navigated fears and the impact of trade wars, a global pandemic, regulatory scrutiny and subsequent market recoveries.

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Market Commentary: October 2021

Global Market Themes: Global equities stage broad rally, led by Developed Markets (DM) Emerging Markets (EM) post lacklustre returns, amidst China-spill over impacts United States (US) equities post fresh record highs Global property rebounds, as Evergrande fears ease Slowing Chinese demand a drag on iron ore and coal, other commodities soar SA Market Themes: South African equities post solid gains, with resources leading the way Economic recovery threatened by new bouts of load shedding Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index signals economic contraction Rand weakness continues Inflation trending higher ahead of November Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting

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China Market Commentary: October 2021

Here are this month’s highlights: Chinese equities had a small rebound before Evergrande’s debt crisis news and a widespread power shortage weighed on investor sentiment. Asset owners, especially in Europe and increasingly so in Southern Africa, have never been under as much pressure to demonstrate action towards net zero and undoubtedly there is more regulation to come.

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Market Commentary: September 2021

Global Market Themes: US stocks pull back on interest rate and inflation fears, uncertainty over stimulus. US narrowly avoids a government shutdown, though concerns about debt ceiling linger. Fears of low-growth-high-inflation equilibrium dampen European investors’ enthusiasm. Chinese jitters spill over to global equity markets. Evergrande saga unsettles market participants, sends global property markets lower. Oil prices rise to three-year high, as some OPEC countries renege on production commitments. SA Market Themes: South Africa moves to lockdown level 1, with significant easing of restrictions. South African markets fare modestly better than global peers, amidst China fall-out. Resources bear the brunt of the sell-off, while Financials gain ground. Rand avoids a taper-tantrum. Electioneering continues apace ahead of local government elections on the 1 November.

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China Market Commentary: September 2021

Here are this month’s highlights: In August, Chinese equity markets showed signs of stabilising despite investor sentiment in the offshore market remaining weak. At the macro level, economic activities in the summer were negatively impacted by floods in central China and pockets of Covid-19 lockdowns. The imminent collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s largest property developers, saw investors globally worry that a default of its USD300bn debt could create a systematic risk.

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