RisCView: 2021
Monthly performance ranking of investment products.
Global Market Themes: Markets roiled by the emergence of new COVID-19 variant (Omicron) United States (US) equities lower, nonetheless outperforming Developed Market (DM) peers Emerging Markets (EM) bear the brunt of global risk aversion Chinese equities mainly lower, on “zero-tolerance” and regulatory uncertainty Oil prices slump, hit 20-month low, on Omicron fears SA Market Themes: Local election results deliver notable surprises in major metros South African scientists report new COVID-19 variant, Omicron, sparking reinstatement of travel bans South African equities seemingly shrug off global fears, close higher led by resources and industrials South African Reserve Bank (SARB) implements first interest rate hike Rand tumbles to fresh lows, closing at more than R16/USD
Here are this month’s highlights: The MSCI China and MSCI China A Onshore indices were up 3.2% and 2.2% respectively. Over the last three years, our multi-manager strategy has experienced both severe bull and bear markets, has navigated fears and the impact of trade wars, a global pandemic, regulatory scrutiny and subsequent market recoveries.
Global Market Themes: Global equities stage broad rally, led by Developed Markets (DM) Emerging Markets (EM) post lacklustre returns, amidst China-spill over impacts United States (US) equities post fresh record highs Global property rebounds, as Evergrande fears ease Slowing Chinese demand a drag on iron ore and coal, other commodities soar SA Market Themes: South African equities post solid gains, with resources leading the way Economic recovery threatened by new bouts of load shedding Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index signals economic contraction Rand weakness continues Inflation trending higher ahead of November Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting
Here are this month’s highlights: Chinese equities had a small rebound before Evergrande’s debt crisis news and a widespread power shortage weighed on investor sentiment. Asset owners, especially in Europe and increasingly so in Southern Africa, have never been under as much pressure to demonstrate action towards net zero and undoubtedly there is more regulation to come.
We are pleased to release the March 2021 edition of the RisCura – SAVCA South African Private Equity Performance Report. This report tracks the performance of a representative basket of…
Global Market Themes: US stocks pull back on interest rate and inflation fears, uncertainty over stimulus. US narrowly avoids a government shutdown, though concerns about debt ceiling linger. Fears of low-growth-high-inflation equilibrium dampen European investors’ enthusiasm. Chinese jitters spill over to global equity markets. Evergrande saga unsettles market participants, sends global property markets lower. Oil prices rise to three-year high, as some OPEC countries renege on production commitments. SA Market Themes: South Africa moves to lockdown level 1, with significant easing of restrictions. South African markets fare modestly better than global peers, amidst China fall-out. Resources bear the brunt of the sell-off, while Financials gain ground. Rand avoids a taper-tantrum. Electioneering continues apace ahead of local government elections on the 1 November.
Here are this month’s highlights: In August, Chinese equity markets showed signs of stabilising despite investor sentiment in the offshore market remaining weak. At the macro level, economic activities in the summer were negatively impacted by floods in central China and pockets of Covid-19 lockdowns. The imminent collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s largest property developers, saw investors globally worry that a default of its USD300bn debt could create a systematic risk.
Global Market Themes: Developed and Emerging Market equities post solid returns in August No new market guidance out of Jackson Hole Symposium Despite increasing regulatory scrutiny of US Big Tech, stock prices push higher Chinese regulatory crackdown continues, leaving investors fretting OPEC agrees to gradual boost in oil supply SA Market Themes: Impact of Naspers/Prosus evident in divergent local equity indices Naspers and Prosus fall materially on Chinese regulatory pressure in August Financials buck the trend, gaining more than 12% on positive earnings results Fixed income delivers solid performance, led by listed property South Africa still counting the cost of looting and unrest, economic news mixed
Here are this month’s highlights: Regulatory activity led to a broad sell-off across Chinese markets amid concerns on China’s policy direction. Following recent market dislocation, RisCura is in the process of rebalancing client portfolios and topping up some recent underperformers. We look at the concept of ‘Common Prosperity’ which has received renewed attention from the Chinese Communist Party.