Global Market Themes: Global markets experience their worst first half in decades Global recession fears rise Central Banks remain steadfast in their resolve to tame inflation Sovereign debt and fragmentation risks flare up in Europe Japanese Yen weakens to multi-decade lows SA Market Themes: Resources bleed as global commodity prices fall Eskom implements Stage 6 loadshedding Inflation breaches the 6% level

Here are this month’s highlights: In May, global equity markets continued their declines from April before, recovering most of the losses in the second half of the month. According to eMarketer, China accounts for 52% of all ecommerce transactions worldwide, with total online sales of over $2 trillion (about three times the US market) in 2021. Live streaming e-commerce market value grew a hundredfold between 2017 and 2021 to reach an estimated $315billion in 2021, representing roughly 16% of the online retail market in China.

Global Market Themes: Elevated volatility amidst central bank action, Russia-Ukraine conflict – global equities mixed United States (US) equities gain modestly (0.2%); Emerging Markets (EM) tick higher (0.4%); United Kingdom (UK) bourse rides the oil-wave (1.1%); but Europe flounders (Eurostoxx -0.8%) Tightening global monetary policy – Rate hikes by United States (US) Fed and Bank of England (BoE) Energy prices continue to hot up – European embargo of Russian seaborne oil adds fuel to the fire Chinese equities gain ground as Omicron-induced restrictions let up somewhat in major cities SA Market Themes: Recurring rolling blackouts, likely to continue throughout winter, suppress green shoots of economic recovery South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hikes rates by 50 basis points (bps), in line with expectations Bonds and Inflation Linked Bonds (ILBs) consequently tick higher, gaining roughly 1% and 2% Financials fly high on rate hikes, subindex 3.5% higher, while industrials and resources dip South African equities end modestly higher, gaining 0.5% in May A volatile Rand hits a fresh yearly low against the dollar at mid-month, before clawing back to R15.58/USD

Here are this month’s highlights: In April, global markets experienced a major sell-off amid a weakening growth outlook due to heightened inflation, rising interest rates, a slowdown in China and geopolitical uncertainty. The offshore China market fared better than its A-share counterpart, with the MSCI China index returning -4.1% versus -10.2% for the MSCI China A Onshore index. At RisCura we believe in diversification across different styles and avoid any persistent bias to Value or Growth across most asset classes.

Global Market Themes: No peaceful end in sight to Russia-Ukraine conflict Global food and energy prices tick higher, further fuelling inflationary fears United States (US) equities slumped, as earnings disappointment added to investor jitters – S&P500 8.8% lower for March European equities lacklustre, powerhouse German bourse (DAX) loses more than 2% Energy-rich United Kingdom (UK) sees equities buck trend and FTSE100 modestly in the green Risk aversion, political wrangling and poor performance from Chinese stocks drags Emerging Markets (EM). MSCI EM closes 5.5% lower SA Market Themes: As Covid-related National State of Disaster (SoD) ends, floods force the declaration of another SoD Costs of flooding in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Eastern Cape mounting – estimated at R17 billion South African (SA) consumers spared worst of petrol price increase, as general fuel levy reduced Equities end in the red, Capped SWIX nearly 4% lower Local currency plunges against greenback, with nearly 8% depreciation Inflation Linked Bonds (ILBs) gain ground, bucking the broad trend

Here are this month’s highlights: To prevent a spike in deaths we expect lockdowns will continue in China and are likely to disrupt its economy. The most compelling reason to invest in China right now is the depressed valuations whilst fundamentals for many companies remain robust. China has a one-party system that can drive substantial change quickly if it wants to. Despite significant pressure for most of last year due to tight credit conditions, real estate will remain a dominant sector.

Global Market Themes: Ukraine dominates sentiment, tensions escalate between Russia and NATO-allied nations Further sanctions, supply chain disruptions boost global energy prices United States (US) announces the release of crude oil reserves, somewhat tempering surging oil prices US stocks close 3.7% higher, but volatility remains elevated US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) sounds a more hawkish tone as it raises the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) Bank of England follows suit, as United Kingdom (UK) inflation ticks higher. European Central Bank (ECB) takes a wait-and-see stance China lags Emerging Market (EM) peers, MSCI China 8% lower in USD, amidst the resurgence of Covid-cases in Shanghai SA Market Themes: Local equities continue their climb during March, Capped SWIX gains 1.5% To combat higher inflation, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hikes interest rates as expected Financials deliver stellar performance, advance more than 11.5%, boosted by SARB decision Year-to-date gains in resources subsector pared by 1% dip during March Rand posts solid gains against major currencies South Africans heave a sigh of disappointment as lockdown extended until April 2022

Here are this month’s highlights: Domestically, a resurgence of COVID-19 cases has led to local lockdowns in multiple cities including Shanghai and Shenzhen. Although volatility may persist in the near term, we remain constructive on Chinese equities given the cheap valuations and strong policy support.