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China Market Commentary: February 2023

Here are this month’s highlights: In just two years, the MSCI India Index’s weighting to Adani companies increased from 1.2% to 5.8% in aggregate, despite many people’s concerns of poor governance. A key question that arises as a consequence of this saga is whether the “E” (within ESG) was so compelling that the “G” could be compromised. By Western standards, one of the main reasons for the poor governance in emerging markets is due to the presence of a controlling shareholder – usually the founder and their family, or the state. Private enterprises run the risk of being managed for the benefit of the majority shareholder and not stakeholders in general, which in its extreme could lead to fraud. In the private sector, we all know how much value a visionary leader, usually the founder and controlling shareholder of the business, can create over time by focusing on the strategic plans rather than quarter-over-quarter financial results – think of the founders of the great internet companies. While it is not always black or white, we argue that fund managers should always be careful when taking on poor governance as the results could be binary – all or nothing.

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Market Commentary: January 2023

Global Market Themes: Pace of US Fed interest rate hikes slowing down. Global markets rally off a low base, led by China. China economy reopens along with pro-growth policy, ushering in risk-on sentiment. Natural gas prices fall further following a mild winter. SA Market Themes: JSE All Share rallies 8.9% along with emerging markets. CPI reading for December 2022 prints in at 7.2%. SARB increases Repo rate by a further 25bps. Rand depreciates 2.4% against the Dollar due to worsening loadshedding conditions.

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China Market Commentary: January 2023

Here are this month’s highlights: It was truly remarkable to see how market sentiment went from panic to optimism in just a few weeks. When market volatility subsides and investors’ focus shifts back to fundamentals, stock selection will be a key driver for returns.

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Market Commentary: December 2022

Global Market Themes: Central Banks continue their fight against inflation and global growth continues to slow Chinese economic reopening buoys Chinese equities despite unclear path ahead New UK Prime Minister helps stabilise UK markets Bank of Japan surprises markets with overnight monetary policy change SA Market Themes: Local markets follow global markets lower Return to Stage 6 loadshedding CPI inflation hits a five-month low of 7.4% but remains stubbornly high

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China Market Commentary: December 2022

Here are this month’s highlights: The direction of Covid policy is now very clear, and a full reopening scenario is upon us. The government has stepped in to provide support to the all-important property sector. We think China is poised for a positive 2023.

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Market Commentary: November 2022

Global Market Themes: US CPI Inflation surprises to the downside, catalysing a risk-on rally Federal Reserve likely to slow pace of interest rate increase going forward China reopening narrative boosts global risk appetite Economic growth continues to slow in Europe and the United Kingdom SA Market Themes: Risk appetite returns, catalysing a strong month for equities Annual inflation remains elevated, trending sideways in the mid-7% range Manufacturing activity appears resilient to ongoing loadshedding

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China Market Commentary: November 2022

Here are this month’s highlights: The recent Covid-related protests in multiple cities suggest that volatility will persist in the near term. China has more STEM graduates than India, the US, Russia, Iran, Indonesia and Japan combined. It is perhaps no surprise that China has the most unicorns (start-ups that are worth more than USD1bn) in the world after the US.

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Market Commentary: October 2022

Global Market Themes: Narrative of global slowing in place of interest rate hikes buoys risk assets Third quarter company earnings in line or better than expected, supporting equities Appointment of new prime minister provides stability for UK markets Xi Jinping secures third term. No end to zero-Covid policies SA Market Themes: Domestic markets post strong recovery Inflation slows marginally to 7.5% in September Tax collection benefits from higher global commodity prices Debt-to-GDP estimated to peak at 71.4%

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China Market Commentary: October 2022

Here are this month’s highlights: The Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell by 6.4% on the Monday after the new Politburo Standing Committee was announced at the Chinese Communist Party Congress. The Golden Dragon Index of US-listed Chinese companies fell by 14.4% on the same day, driven by panic selling by foreign investors. Contrary to the market reaction by international investors, most domestic managers we spoke to are either less bearish or simply not surprised by the outcome of the Party Congress. Chinese equity markets offer a wealth of opportunities, although their composition will look quite different in the next 10 years. While this geopolitical risk is well priced into Chinese equities, it is far from fully reflected in global companies that either rely on sales to the world’s largest population or on manufacturing and imports from China.

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