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China Market Commentary: October 2022

Here are this month’s highlights: The Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell by 6.4% on the Monday after the new Politburo Standing Committee was announced at the Chinese Communist Party Congress. The Golden Dragon Index of US-listed Chinese companies fell by 14.4% on the same day, driven by panic selling by foreign investors. Contrary to the market reaction by international investors, most domestic managers we spoke to are either less bearish or simply not surprised by the outcome of the Party Congress. Chinese equity markets offer a wealth of opportunities, although their composition will look quite different in the next 10 years. While this geopolitical risk is well priced into Chinese equities, it is far from fully reflected in global companies that either rely on sales to the world’s largest population or on manufacturing and imports from China.

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Market Commentary: September 2022

Global Market Themes: Equity and fixed-income markets experience more pain in September Bank of England abruptly reverses course on Quantitative Tightening Japanese Yen sees first currency intervention in 24 years US Federal Reserve remains resolute in raising rates SA Market Themes: Local markets follow global peers lower Loadshedding continues to take its toll on economic activity The Reserve Bank adds a further 75 basis points

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China Market Commentary: September 2022

Here are this month’s highlights: The bulk of the manager cohort was underweight to China compared to the neutral benchmark index weight. The median global emerging market manager has also come to realise the importance of Chinese A shares. Among Asian managers, only the 5th percentile had half of their portfolios in the country matching the MSCI Asia ex Japan Index. Managers who historically had a smaller allocation to China were forced to change tack with the opening of the A-share market.

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Market Commentary: August 2022

Global Market Themes: Developed Market equities fall; Emerging Markets post modest gains The Federal Reserve doubles down on interest rate policy stance Eurozone inflation accelerates, exacerbated by soaring energy prices Chinese economic activity continues to slow, despite marginal policy easing SA Market Themes: Equities lose ground while bonds flat-to-positive Inflation accelerates to an annualised 7.8% in July GDP contracts in the second quarter SA faces potential grey listing by global money monitoring watchdog

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China Market Commentary: August 2022

Here are this month’s highlights: The MSCI China and MSCI China A Onshore indices were down 9.4% and 6.0% respectively for the month. Value-style managers are starting to show improved results. More than two-thirds of the bottom quartile managers have outperformed the median since January 2021. Operational setup can be as important as investment acumen when evaluating a manager.

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Market Commentary: July 2022

Global Market Themes: Global equities bounce back with the MSCI World gaining just short of 8% United States (US) equities lead the charge (+9.2%), closely followed by European counterparts (+7.9%) Emerging Markets were modestly lower (MSCI EM -0.3%), but widely divergent within EM performances – MSCI BRIC 3.6% lower, as MSCI China dips nearly 10% Politics at play in the United Kingdom (UK) as beleaguered (ex) Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves office Oil price softens modestly, industrial metals gain ground SA Market Themes: Unprotected strike action leads to unprecedented levels of loadshedding Efforts s to alleviate pressure on existing grid ramped up Shifting political landscape under the spotlight as President Cyril Ramaphosa’s farm robbery continues to make headlines Some respite for motorists at the petrol pump South African inflation continues to tick higher, further rate hikes on the cards Financials consequently continue strong year-to-date (YTD), performance, but Industrials deliver the strongest sectoral performance.

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Market Commentary: June 2022

Global Market Themes: Global markets experience their worst first half in decades Global recession fears rise Central Banks remain steadfast in their resolve to tame inflation Sovereign debt and fragmentation risks flare up in Europe Japanese Yen weakens to multi-decade lows SA Market Themes: Resources bleed as global commodity prices fall Eskom implements Stage 6 loadshedding Inflation breaches the 6% level

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China Market Commentary: June 2022

Here are this month’s highlights: In May, global equity markets continued their declines from April before, recovering most of the losses in the second half of the month. According to eMarketer, China accounts for 52% of all ecommerce transactions worldwide, with total online sales of over $2 trillion (about three times the US market) in 2021. Live streaming e-commerce market value grew a hundredfold between 2017 and 2021 to reach an estimated $315billion in 2021, representing roughly 16% of the online retail market in China.

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