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Market Commentary: January 2020

Here are this month’s highlights: The South African Reserve Bank reduces interest rates; local equity suffered the effects of the coronavirus outbreak as did the property sector which experienced persistent downward selling pressure and commodities were also significantly affected with investors pricing in the potential slow-down in China and its impact on global growth. Investors seek safety in global fixed income assets during times of market uncertainty. Brexit finally occurred and the phase-one deal was signed by the US and China, but was largely overshadowed due to the coronavirus outbreak.

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Market Commentary: December 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: Inflation is expected to remain the same going into 2020. However, consumers can expect increasing electricity, water and fuel prices in the new year. Local bond markets ticked up and local equities posted decent gains with SA Inc stocks trading at significant discounts, creating opportunities for astute investors. The South African listed property sector was the worst performing asset class. Emerging Markets ended the year on a positive note, while the US and China reached a phase one trade deal. The rand proved resilient despite the Eskom-induced gloom.

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Market Commentary: November 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: South African assets struggled in November, underperforming global peers. Sentiment regarding trade talks swung between optimism and concern: A ‘Phase One’ trade deal seemed imminent after China promised improved policing of Intellectual Property Rights but appeared to be at risk after US President Donald Trump provoked Beijing’s displeasure by supporting pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Risk-on, however, remained the prevalent sentiment and November was a particularly good month for developed market equities.

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Market Commentary: October 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: Global equity markets were boosted by easing trade tensions between the US and China, as the two countries reached an interim trade-deal at month-end. Renewed risk-appetite saw emerging markets outperform developed peers, and global government bond yields ticked higher. Local investor sentiment was weighed down by a tepid response to the MTBPS, Moody’s looming review and political uncertainty.

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Market Commentary: September 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: South African assets struggled during September, with Cash proving one of the better performing local investments. Local equities had a lacklustre month, but notable company news included the listing of Naspers spin-off Prosus. International equities were broadly higher, despite some unsettling macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Developed markets outperformed emerging market peers, and Chinese equities were weaker as the trade spat with the US continued.

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Market Commentary: August 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: Global equities had a tough August, with little respite from the trade war between the US and China, and no end in sight to Brexit wrangling. The inversion of the US yield curve has also fuelled fears of an imminent recession, and downbeat sentiment saw investors turn to safe-haven assets. Gold, the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen were therefore in high demand, while Emerging Markets struggled against their Developed Market peers.

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Market Commentary: July 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: Geopolitical factors and monetary policy action gave investors pause for thought this month, and global equities closed modestly higher. The Federal Reserve Bank lowered interest rates as expected, trade tension simmered and the UK saw a new Prime Minister elected. Developed Market equities outperformed Emerging Markets, with South African equities notably lagging peers.

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Market Commentary: June 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: It was a volatile month for global risk assets. The oil price ticked up on supply concerns, as tensions between Iran and the US escalated and OPEC agreed to maintain production cuts. Sentiments on a resolution to the trade-spat between the US and China swung from negative to positive as Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met at month-end on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. Central Banks reaffirmed their commitment to an accommodative monetary policy environment, acknowledging that global growth was a concern. Easy money boosted the appetite for risk assets (equities, high yield bonds and Emerging Markets), as growth jitters boosted demand for safe haven assets (developed market equities, gold and government bonds).

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