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Market Commentary: March 2020

Here are this month’s highlights: The world economy continues to feel the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent spread. The South African Reserve Bank cut its repo rate by 100 basis points. Inflation-linked bonds experienced its worst month on record. Local equity indices experienced its most severe declines since the Global Financial Crisis. Declines in Property effectively halved the value of the SA Property Index in just three months. Globally, there was a large-scale scramble for safe-haven assets and there is a general consensus among major global banks of a global recession in 2020.

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Market Commentary: February 2020

Here are this month’s highlights: Cash was up 47 basis points in February and bonds were largely flat. South Africa entered a technical recession. The US and China lowered existing import tariffs per the phase 1 trade agreement. This was largely overshadowed by the spread of the coronavirus outbreak that saw global markets fall.

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Market Commentary: January 2020

Here are this month’s highlights: The South African Reserve Bank reduces interest rates; local equity suffered the effects of the coronavirus outbreak as did the property sector which experienced persistent downward selling pressure and commodities were also significantly affected with investors pricing in the potential slow-down in China and its impact on global growth. Investors seek safety in global fixed income assets during times of market uncertainty. Brexit finally occurred and the phase-one deal was signed by the US and China, but was largely overshadowed due to the coronavirus outbreak.

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Market Commentary: December 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: Inflation is expected to remain the same going into 2020. However, consumers can expect increasing electricity, water and fuel prices in the new year. Local bond markets ticked up and local equities posted decent gains with SA Inc stocks trading at significant discounts, creating opportunities for astute investors. The South African listed property sector was the worst performing asset class. Emerging Markets ended the year on a positive note, while the US and China reached a phase one trade deal. The rand proved resilient despite the Eskom-induced gloom.

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Market Commentary: November 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: South African assets struggled in November, underperforming global peers. Sentiment regarding trade talks swung between optimism and concern: A ‘Phase One’ trade deal seemed imminent after China promised improved policing of Intellectual Property Rights but appeared to be at risk after US President Donald Trump provoked Beijing’s displeasure by supporting pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Risk-on, however, remained the prevalent sentiment and November was a particularly good month for developed market equities.

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Market Commentary: October 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: Global equity markets were boosted by easing trade tensions between the US and China, as the two countries reached an interim trade-deal at month-end. Renewed risk-appetite saw emerging markets outperform developed peers, and global government bond yields ticked higher. Local investor sentiment was weighed down by a tepid response to the MTBPS, Moody’s looming review and political uncertainty.

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Market Commentary: September 2019

Here are this month’s highlights: South African assets struggled during September, with Cash proving one of the better performing local investments. Local equities had a lacklustre month, but notable company news included the listing of Naspers spin-off Prosus. International equities were broadly higher, despite some unsettling macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Developed markets outperformed emerging market peers, and Chinese equities were weaker as the trade spat with the US continued.

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