China’s role in the global economy
After an exceptionally strong third quarter, Chinese equities saw a modest pullback in October. Recent macroeconomic indicators point to some softening in China’s economy. Exports unexpectedly contracted by 1.1% year-on-year, marking their first decline since February, as companies awaited the outcome of the Xi-Trump summit. Despite these short-term pressures, full-year GDP growth remains on track to meet the government’s target of “around 5 percent,” and further large-scale stimulus appears unlikely unless the economy experiences a material negative shock. The MSCI China and MSCI China A Onshore indices declined by 3.8% and 0.2%, respectively. Retail sales remained subdued and property sales softened across major cities. Industrial profits fell 5.5% year-on-year ─ the largest decline since June ─ partially unwinding the double-digit growth recorded in August and September.