Andrew van Biljon, Head of Investment Management at RisCura, has been featured in the Citywire South Africa Star Selector Annual 2025, offering his perspective on the macro themes shaping global and local markets.

The Q&A explores how shifts in policy, growth dynamics and geopolitical risk are influencing portfolio construction, and highlights the factors investors should consider as they position for 2026.The discussion covers global monetary policy, inflation dynamics, unexpected market behaviours, portfolio risk considerations and asset-class views, providing a practical lens on how investors can navigate a complex and evolving environment.

Monetary policy and portfolio positioning

With global monetary policy moving into an easing phase across most developed markets, Andrew notes that this shift does not automatically translate into a stronger return environment. The key considerations remain the durability of growth and the future path of inflation. Duration has become more appealing, while credit and equity positioning continues to require careful valuation discipline to avoid areas where risk premia have compressed.

Soft-landing expectations and investor positioning

Although global economic resilience has exceeded expectations, Andrew remains cautious about calling a definitive soft landing. Much of the stability seen so far reflects earlier fiscal support and tight labour markets rather than a renewed growth cycle. As a result, the team continues to adopt a balanced approach, maintaining exposure where real yields remain attractive while avoiding unnecessary risk in areas that have already repriced significantly.

Unexpected developments in 2025

Several developments stood out over the year. Globally, US equities continued to perform strongly despite elevated valuations, supported by liquidity, fiscal momentum and ongoing enthusiasm around AI-related growth. Locally, political and commodity market dynamics introduced periods of volatility. The delay in passing South Africa’s budget raised concerns over the stability of the Government of National Unity, while the rapid rally in platinum markets underscored how quickly sentiment in resource-linked sectors can shift.

Underappreciated risks

Andrew identifies structural risks that may be underestimated by markets. These include the potential for inflation pressures to re-emerge as global supply chains adjust, tariff risks persist and fiscal deficits remain elevated. Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in Europe and the United States, also continues to shape the investment environment. Instead of attempting to hedge every scenario, the priority remains building portfolios that are resilient across a range of outcomes.

Drivers of performance in 2025

A diversified approach across asset classes supported participation in recoveries across Africa, China and broader emerging markets. Selective risk reduction implemented earlier in the year contributed positively to relative performance, reflecting a disciplined stance during periods of uncertainty.

Asset classes offering compelling opportunities

With inflation easing and interest rates stabilising, the environment has become more balanced. Income has returned as a meaningful component of total return, and valuation discipline has become increasingly important. Fixed income assets, particularly where real yields remain elevated, continue to offer attractive risk-adjusted prospects. Opportunities in equities are also appearing in certain emerging markets and in value-orientated segments that have lagged broader market performance.

Alternatives and private markets positioning

Within alternatives, the team has maintained steady exposure to private credit and real assets. The emphasis remains on strategies that offer differentiated return drivers from traditional market beta. Private credit continues to provide attractive spreads for disciplined lenders, while real assets offer diversification and inflation protection, albeit with heightened selectivity given significant capital flows into the space.

South Africa’s investment landscape

Relative to late 2024, South Africa continues to screen attractively on several valuation metrics. Real yields remain high, inflation is contained and the rand trades at a discount to perceived fair value. Although local assets have re-rated following strong performance, the macro risk premium remains compelling. Policy and fiscal stability will be central to how this premium evolves.

Positioning for 2026

Looking ahead, the investment environment continues to normalise. Global growth is moderating, fiscal pressures persist and policy rates may remain higher for longer than markets currently expect. In this context, portfolio construction is increasingly guided by balance, flexibility and valuation discipline. The focus remains on building portfolios that can compound steadily across a wider range of environments. To read the full interview as featured by Citywire, visit the article here: Top List Star Selectors 2025

Speak to our team 

If you would like to discuss any of the themes raised in this article, you can book time with a member of our investment team here: