Global Market Commentary: October 2023

October was a challenging month for global markets, with rising inflation and slowing economic growth weighing on sentiment.

Key takeaway points:

  • Global growth slows down and there has been a surge in financial strain, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies.
  • Major stock indices see declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.3%, the S&P 500 dropping 2.1%, and the NASDAQ experiencing a 2.8% decrease.
  • The MSCI World index records a 2.9% decline, while the MSCI EM index sheds 3.9%.
  • The Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index records a relatively milder decrease of 1.2%.
  • Energy sector lags with a 5.8% decline, while utilities show a modest 1.3% increase, and the Technology sector inched up by 0.1%.
  • Mortgage rates in the United States reach nearly 8%, leading to a decline in homebuilder confidence and reduced interest from prospective buyers.
  • The EU and Japan meet to discuss digital advancements and efficiencies.
  • China’s manufacturing activity contracts slightly in October, most likely connected to uncertainties surrounding the country’s economic recovery, the Golden Week holiday, and the current instability in the property market due to weaker local demand.
  • Huawei has registered the trademark “Far Ahead” in the categories of transportation tools and scientific instruments.
  • Chinese scientists develop an underwater robot with impressive adhesive, clinging and gliding capabilities.
  • Hamas initiates an unexpected attack on Israel, prompting a swift response from the Israeli authorities. The conflict has resulted in mounting casualties and extensive damage to infrastructure.
  • The UK’s Business Confidence Monitor for the third quarter indicates a slight drop in business confidence compared to the previous quarter.
  • Inflation in the Eurozone falls to 2.9% in October.
  • Kenya is at work to remove visa requirements for all African visitors by the end of 2023 to boost business growth.
  • India’s overall unemployment rate rises to 10.05% in October, with a significant portion of this increase in rural areas.
  • Brazil experiences a slight contraction in economic activity in October, which was expected by the government and economists, due to the ripple effects of interest rate hikes.
  • Russia implements measures to streamline the investment process for citizens and companies from countries on their ‘friendly’ list.
  • Brent Crude oil increases from $84.59 a barrel to $88.11 a barrel, mainly driven by the conflict in Israel and Gaza.
  • Gold prices also increase  by over 8%.

Overall, global markets encountered some challenges in October. However, there are also some notable positive developments, such as the EU-Japan High-Level Economic Dialogue (HLED). Investors should continue to closely observe global economic and geopolitical developments.

About RisCura Global monthly market commentary

Explore the retrospective RisCura Global monthly Commentary, spanning vital regions like the USA, UK, Europe, and emerging markets. Gain clarity on economic phenomena with benchmarks on inflation, interest rates, commodity prices, and credit ratings. Tailored for value-driven investors, our insights inform asset allocation across diverse global markets.

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Mubeen Abdulla