China Market Commentary: September 2023

Chinese equities declined in August due to various factors, including property sector challenges and a lack of significant policy action. Towards the end of the month, market sentiment improved as the government implemented measures to support the economy and capital markets. Recent macroeconomic data indicated signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy, with positive CPI, PPI, retail sales, and industrial production trends. However, concerns persist regarding the property sector's impact on the overall economic outlook.

Chinese Equities: The month of August in review

Highlights in this article reveal:  

  • How did Chinese equities perform in August, and what were the main reasons for their performance?
  • What were the trends regarding foreign investment and mutual fund launches in the Chinese A-shares market during August?
  • What was the effect of the Chinese government’s policy measures on market sentiment?

Chinese equities experienced a broad-based decline in August, relinquishing most of their previous month’s gains. This reversal was once again attributed to the absence of meaningful policy actions and the re-emergence of property sector woes, triggered by Country Garden, one of China’s largest private developers, initially missing its bond payments (although this was later resolved within the grace period).  

Chinese equities experienced a broad-based decline in August, relinquishing most of their previous month’s gains. This reversal was once again attributed to the absence of meaningful policy actions and the re-emergence of property sector woes…  

Additionally, a Chinese asset manager named ZhongZhi faced a liquidity issue, causing a delay in the payment of maturing wealth products. For the month, the MSCI China and MSCI China A Onshore indices were down by 9.0% and 8.1%, respectively.

August witnessed a record net outflow of 89.7 billion Yuan from foreign investors in A-shares. Furthermore, Chinese mutual funds launched equity products at a significantly lower rate, ranging from only 10% to 20% of levels seen during historically more favourable periods.

August witnessed a record net outflow of 89.7 billion Yuan from foreign investors in A-shares. Furthermore, Chinese mutual funds launched equity products at a significantly lower rate, ranging from only 10% to 20% of levels seen during historically more favourable periods. 

However, market sentiment improved towards the end of the month as the government introduced new measures to support the economy and capital markets. These measures included a stamp duty cut, lower margin financing requirements, and a slowdown in new listings. In the property sector specifically, banks reduced existing mortgage rates, and local authorities relaxed home purchase restrictions in many tier 1 and 2 cities, including Beijing and Shanghai. These policies appear to be gradually moving in the right direction. 

However, market sentiment improved towards the end of the month as the government introduced new measures to support the economy and capital markets. These measures included a stamp duty cut, lower margin financing requirements, and a slowdown in new listings… On the macroeconomic front, recent data indicated signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy. 

On the macroeconomic front, recent data indicated signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy. In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) returned to positive territory, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed improvement compared to July. Year-on-year retail sales rose by 4.6%, surpassing the 2.5% increase observed in July, while the total value of industrial production increased by 4.5%, accelerating from 3.7% in July.  

Despite these positive indicators, the situation unfolding in the property sector continues to be a critical factor influencing overall economic prospects. 

Subscribe to our monthly China commentary report for a a detailed and insightful analysis of the state of the Chinese equity market. 

Faisal Rafi - Head of Research